Serie A: Inter Aim to Be Third Time Lucky

AC Milan vs Inter Milan

Whatever happens this season, Milan will always have Saudi Arabia. Only a few weeks ago, with new manager Sergio Conceicao barely through the door, they travelled to the Middle East to compete in the Super Coppa (the Italian Super Cup) where they were given little chance of succeeding.

Trailing 2-0 to arch rivals Inter in the final, the holders and Serie A champions, why would anyone back the Rossoneri given they had just sacked their manager and were struggling?

Yet what followed must have stunned even some of their own followers as Theo Hernandez, Christian Pulisic and, in the dying seconds, Tammy Abraham clinched the silverware in just Conceicao’s second game in charge. All this after Lautaro Martinez and Mehdi Tahremi had struck either side of half-time to give Inter a quick-fire lead.

Hot on the heels of a recovery against Juventus in the semi-final, Milan had something to shout about once again.

 

Talking Points

In truth, since their jaunt to Saudi Arabia, results have been mixed and the so-called “new manager bounce” has worn off a little. They have drawn with Cagliari, defeated Como, Parma, and Girona, but lost to Juventus and, in midweek, Dinamo Zagreb – a result which consigned them to a play-off contest rather than automatic qualification for the last 16 of the Champions League.

During their tenures, predecessors Stefano Pioli and Paulo Fonseca both criticised the Milan players for their lack of determination and mentality, and it hasn’t taken long for Conceicao to lash out for their lack of “football basics” and mentality after defeat in Zagreb.

However, such is their desire for more cup success, would anyone really be surprised if they inflict a second blow on their neighbours in the league this weekend and go onto see off Roma in the Italian Cup quarter-finals in midweek. For Milan have a habit of surprising this SBOTOP writer.

While Serie A 2025 highlights have been few and far between for them so far, Inter are a team in form. Since being held at home by Bologna just over a fortnight ago, they have rattled off four straight wins in the league and Europe, scoring 11 times and conceding just once in the process.

Their latest success was emphatic as they secured a top eight finish in the Champions League in midweek – albeit against opponents who played most of the match with 10 men as Monaco were despatched 3-0 thanks to a Martinez hat-trick. He will be the man Milan have to be wary of this weekend.

Yes, the Argentine is currently only joint fifth in the top scorer standings behind teammate Marcus Thuram, Fiorentina hotshot Moise Kean, and Atalanta duo Mateo Retegui and Ademola Lookman, but he is so often the man for the big occasion, and, in this part of the world, there is nothing bigger than a Milan derby.

Inter may receive a crucial injury boost ahead of the third Derby della Madonnina of the campaign as both Hakan Calhanoglu and Francesco Acerbi are reportedly closing in on full recovery.

 

History 

Overall, Inter have a slight edge, but Milan have won both games so far this term.

As well as that superb comeback in the final of the Italian Super Cup a few weeks ago, they won the league fixture in September when an 89^th minute header from Matteo Gabbia clinched the point after first half goals from Pulisic and Federico Dimarco.

Inter enjoyed a league double over Milan last term on their way to title glory as a 5-1 home victory in September was followed by a 2-1 away win which clinched Serie A  – obviously both matches were played at their shared San Siro stadium – when Francesco Acerbi and Thuram scored their goals.

These sides have real history in Europe too. Two seasons ago, Inter prevailed in an all-Milan two-legged Champions League semi-final. Milan, though, saw off their neighbours at the same stage of their victorious 2002/03 campaign before Carlo Ancelotti’s side went on to beat another Italian side, Juventus, 3-2 on penalties after the final at Old Trafford had finished goalless.

 

Betting Tip

After back-to-back defeats to their great rivals and neighbours, Inter will be keen to gain some revenge and, given the bigger title picture at stake, I think they will do just that.

A “home” win will be a nice little earner with Serie A 2025 betting odds with Milan priced 1X2 @ 3.39 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.17, as well as a draw on offer @ 3.27.

Given so many of these meetings can be fairly close, you can’t really go wrong with Total Goal 0-1 @ 3.27, 2-3 @ 1.99, 4-6 @ 3.20, and Over 2.75 @ 2.11. Likewise, a repeat of the corresponding fixture last term will pay out @ 8.00 with Correct Score 1-2.

Despite all of that, I cannot see beyond a triumph for the reigning Scudetto champions, who can be backed 1X2 @ 2.00.

   

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