The 2025/26 Premier League title race is hurtling towards a thrilling climax; with four games for Arsenal to play and five for Manchester City and just three points between them. Put simply, one slip from either club could be terminal and the latest Premier League 2026 betting odds can hardly split them, with the Sky Blues having the slightest edge.
Pep Guardiola’s team won four Premier League titles on the run before Liverpool stepped in last term while Mikel Arteta’s teams have been runners up for three seasons on the bounce and a fourth failure to get over the line would be so hard to take, after they led the league for pretty much all of the campaign.
But they have begun to stutter a little and Arsenal edged past Newcastle to move back to the top of the Premier League table last weekend, while Manchester City were in FA Cup action, beating Southampton 2-1 in the semi-final.
Guardiola’s team has made up six points on Arteta’s in recent weeks, and they have a huge psychological edge.
The Sky Blues beat the Gunners when they met in the Premier League just over a week ago and the Citizens also beat Arsenal in the Carabao Cup final as Nico O’Reilly scored a double and, with an FA Cup final against Chelsea to come, they are looking for the domestic treble. Meanwhile, after also losing to Bournemouth recently, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have a potentially grueling Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid to come, with the first leg in Spain to come this Wednesday.
So which club can see the job through? Arsenal has shown great resilience for much of the campaign, winning week after week and they have a superb set-piece record and Arteta has the strongest squad of his career at the Emirates so far. But this SBOTOP writer has a sneaky suspicion that the Sky Blues’ experience in tight finishes…and momentum, will see the title stay in the north of England and away from London.
The key players
With such a richness of talent available to the two head coaches it’s not an easy choice to pick out the players who will write the headlines over the next month, with the likes of the league’s top scorer Erling Haaland spearheading the City attack and William Saliba and Gabriel at the heart of the Gunners defence. While Arsenal have that stellar centre back pairing I’m picking a midfielder and striker who I believe can be their matchwinners, in Declan Rice and Viktor Gyokeres.
Rice has the coolness that Arsenal need to keep their nerves and see out the job. He’s in his third season at the Emirates after signing from West Ham United for a club record fee of £100m and has since scored 15 goals in 106 appearances, able to play as a box-to-box midfielder or in a holding role. He’s a leader on the pitch and Rice can do the heavy lifting to make life easier for his creative team-mates.
Gyokeres has 12 league goals for the season, which still leaves him below City’s Erling Haaland and Antoine Semenyo in the race for the Golden Boot, and the Swedish hitman is determined to take his tally on. He has bagged regularly at home and in Europe and Gyokeres is a match-winner, able to score all manner of goals.
For Manchester City Rayan Cherki has made ten assists, and the France star has made his own showreel of Premier League 2026 highlights since the turn of the year, with a consistent run of scintillating displays. With a lightning turn of pace Cherki can cut through a defence with his dazzling dribbling or a killer pass.
And sitting in behind the Sky Blues fans would love to see former Ballon D’or winner Rodri in their number six position. Injured earlier in the campaign the Spain star’s return has coincided with City’s march to the top but he picked up a groin strain in the victory over Arsenal and missed the wins over Burnley and Southampton. Guardiola has remained tight-lipped about Rodri’s fitness but he still has a week to get fully fit before City are in action again.
The run-in
So, which of these two teams is more likely to drop points in May? Well Arsenal have won one of their last three while City won all three of theirs.
The Sky Blues’ game in hand is at home to Crystal Palace, currently 13th and unlikely to trouble the Citizens.
In the other four rounds Guardiola’s men visit Everton, who have won one in five, before hosting Brentford who have drawn five on the bounce. Anything other than City wins there will be a surprise and then they visit Bournemouth who are flying at the moment, before finishing at home to Aston Villa, who are likely to be heading to the beach with a Champions League place booked.
I doubt Arsenal can afford to slip more than once, if at all. The Gunners host Europe chasing Fulham before visiting relegation battlers West Ham United; two tasty London derbies. Then they host relegated Burnley and finish off with a trip to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace. I can see both teams winning all of their games; I’m confident it will go down to the wire, and it may well come down to nerves.
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