League Cup: Toon Out to Confirm Wembley Berth

Newcastle United vs Arsenal

As football matches go, I get the impression the second leg of this League Cup semi-final is far more important for the hosts than it is for the visitors.

It’s been well documented that Newcastle United, arguably more than any other club in English football, is desperate: desperate for success, desperate for its day in the sun, desperate to give its long-suffering fan base something to cheer; desperate to finally get its hands on some silverware.

Although the side won a European trophy in the late 1960s (the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup was considered the forerunner to the UEFA Cup), you have to go back to the mid-1950s to the last time the team secured major domestic silverware.

That means this week’s second leg of their semi-final with Arsenal is of huge importance on Tyneside and, with a healthy first leg 2-0 advantage, this tie really is Newcastle’s to lose.

Talking Points 

By contrast, while Arsenal may not have had much silverware to show for their efforts in recent years, their priority lies very much elsewhere, even if talented young forward Gabriel Martinelli suggested they are heading to the north-east to score a plenty and turn the tie around.

It is also unclear how much Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta is willing to risk.

That is because, despite realistically being too far adrift, the Gunners will retain a glimmer of hope they can work their way into the Premier League title mix following a quite emphatic victory over reigning champions Manchester City on Sunday.

The job now for Arteta, whose project certainly seems on the right path, is ensuring his squad – yes they have been hit hard by injuries this campaign – can use that performance as the benchmark for more consistent showings, rather than be the high point of their season.

At the time of writing this, it is unclear if either squad will strengthen with a transfer deadline day acquisition and, even if they do, the chances of a new recruit playing in this second leg are extremely slim.

Indeed, Newcastle appear more concerned with balancing the books – they have just sold Miguel Almirón to Atlanta and are close to a £15million deal with Juventus for Lloyd Kelly.

Boss Eddie Howe certainly appears resigned to a lack of reinforcements.

While Arsenal were turning on the style against City over the weekend, Newcastle were slipping to a surprise 2-1 home defeat to Fulham.

It was a result which damaged the bid for a top four spot and, without being unkind to the Cottagers, was perhaps an indication the Toon already had one eye on this encounter.

This SBOTOP writer expects more League Cup 2025 highlights to come their way on Wednesday as they try to move one step closer to ending several decades of pain.

History

What a rich history these two clubs have, dating back to their first ever meeting in 1893.

Traditionally, Arsenal have the edge with 85 wins to the Toon’s 71 and a further 39 draws. 

However, in recent years it has been one-sided as Arsenal have actually won 20 of their last 25 meetings. 

They lost out 1-0 in the North East in early November though, when Alexander Isak scored the only goal of the contest just 12 minutes in.

And, of course, they have a 2-0 first leg advantage from a few weeks ago when Isak and Anthony Gordon were on target.

Newcastle have only scored in five of their past 13 meetings with the Gunners. 

In February, Arsenal ran out 4-1 winners in North London, courtesy of an own goal, Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka and Jakub Kiwior. 

Former Gunner Joe Willock netted the consolation for the visitors. 

Betting Tip 

Our League Cup 2025 betting odds still make Arsenal favourites to win the second leg.

They can be backed 1X2 @ 2.05 compared to the home team @ 3.04.

With Asian Handicap odds, it is again a nod towards the Gunners who are priced -0.25 @ 1.82 with the Geordies on offer 0.00 @ 2.33 and +0.25 @ 2.02.

A third successive 1-0 home win for Newcastle over Arsenal will pay out @ 10.50 with Correct Score.

There aren’t too many goalless draws between these sides – there was one two seasons ago – and I am not expecting another now given options include total goal 0-1 @ 3.28, 2-3 @ 1.94 and 4-6 @ 2.89.

All in all then, I think there will be a few goals and I don’t think Arsenal will lose to Newcastle for the third time this season, but I am not expecting them to rescue the tie either.

 

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