Champions League: Don’t Take Your Eyes Off Atleti vs Real!

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

When the Round of 16 Champions League draw was made, in Nyon last month, the pairing of Real Madrid and Atletico took the headlines and, after a tight clash at the Santiago Bernabeu, this will be the game to watch on Wednesday. 

Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid took a 2-1 first-leg advantage and the 15-time European champions are favourites to make it through to the quarters, but they have struggled in Madrid derbies in recent times and Los Rojiblancos have a point to prove having suffered back to back losses over the past seven days.  

Diego Simeone’s Atleti have quietly worked their way into the La Liga title race but they fluffed a chance to go top on Sunday, losing to Getafe on the back of their defeat in the Bernabeu and this is not a team which takes losing lightly! Los Blancos narrowly navigated a tricky test against Rayo Vallecano to go level with Barcelona and one point ahead of Atleti in the La Liga table and now they are set to enter a cauldron at the Wanda Metropolitano.        

 

Talking Points

Never doubt Atleti’s mentality

Two losses in a week is a rarity on the red side of Madrid, under the 14 year reign of Diego Simeone almost unthinkable. The manager said he was extremely disappointed with his players ‘bad performance’ against Getafe but he was at pains to say he trusted his players to put things right, saying: “I don’t think it was a matter of attitude, the mental side was OK, but it wasn’t a good game by us today.”

Maybe Los Rojiblancos had half an eye on the Champions League; Simeone certainly did as he substituted midfield ace Rodrigo de Paul when the Argentine star felt a knock, ensuring, as far as possible, that he would be fit to face Los Blancos. The Atleti boss also subbed Summer signing Julian Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann early in the second half and it looked like his team had done the business when Alexander Sorloth scored in the 75^th minute, but two late Getafe goals wrecked Atleti’s top spot hopes.

Alvarez, who scored his seventh Champions League goal in the first leg, and Griezmann, who has six, will surely start against Los Blancos with Sorloth also pushing for a place as the hosts go in search of goals. They will need to keep it tight at the back against a star-studded Real attack and the impressive centre back partnership of Clement Lenglet and Jose Gimenez will need to be at their very best.

But we can be sure that Los Rojiblancos will leave nothing on the pitch.   

 

Real stars can shake off their knocks

Ancelotti has had his fair share of injuries to cope with this season, most recently to advanced midfielder Jude Bellingham, and he must have been wincing when he received reports that the England man, as well as Brazil star Rodrygo, had picked up minor injuries during the hard fought win over Vallecano. News from the club on Monday suggests they will both be fit and firing. If so Rodrygo will form a front three alongside Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, who were both on target against Vallecano on Sunday, and they each have seven goals in the Champions League. Bellingham will operate behind the front three, and there should be a start too for the versatile Brahim Diaz who has delivered consistently for his manager. While Ancelotti has plenty of cover up front he is relying on a relatively new relationship at the back as 22 year old Raul Asencio sits alongside the experienced Anton Rudiger; and they will face as serious a test as the Atleti back line.       

The latest Champions League 2025 betting odds pitch Los Blancos as joint third favourites to win the title but if they can navigate this challenge they will close the gap on favourites Barcelona.

 

History

With 43 wins to 15 Los Blancos have bossed this relationship, but while they won the first leg, Ancelotti’s team has failed to win any of the previous four meetings, with three 1-1 draws following a 4-2 victory for Los Rojiblancos in the 2024 Copa del Rey as Griezmann scored a stunning late goal.     

In terms of recent form, Real have won five from their last six games while Atleti have won two, drawn two and lost two.   

 

Betting Tip

Here at SBOTOP we can hardly split the two Madrid giants for this second leg with Atleti priced at 2.42 and Real at 2.45 with the draw at 3.23. Keep a close eye on the Champions League 2025 updates on Wednesday; I suspect there will be more twists and turns at the Wanda Metropolitano. Los Blancos may well squeeze through but it will be one heck of a battle.

   

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