World Cup 2026: Two Wins from Summer Showpiece

Ukraine vs Sweden

After a dismal World Cup qualifying campaign, neutrals may be racking their brains just how Sweden can still reach the States this summer.

And it’s a fair point.

For there is no logical reason why the Swedes should be in contention for a place at the biggest international show on earth after winning none of their six qualifiers (they actually lost four).

Their record in the Nations League, however, has given them a second chance.

Meanwhile, Ukraine, who actually fared far better in qualifying, finishing second in their group behind only France, now start again from scratch in this one-legged semi-final.

 

Talking Points

Putting fairness aside, the maths are simple. Whoever wins this tie – followed by a match-up against the winner of the semi-final between Poland and Albania – will take their place in America this summer in a group which comprises Holland, Japan and Tunisia (Poland will probably feel they deserve it after claiming 17 points in their qualifying group only to miss out on top spot).

While their qualifying record would suggest Sweden are lucky to still have a shot, perhaps fate is falling in their favour.

After all, home advantage in this tie has been wiped out because, with football not taking place in war-torn Ukraine, the match will be played in Valencia in Spain.

It’s also fair to say Ukraine don’t have a great track record when it comes to World Cup qualifying play-offs.

They have entered the play-off phase for five different World Cups (1998, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022) and been eliminated every single time.

By contrast, the Scandinavians have nothing to lose.

Graham Potter replaced Jon Dahl Tomasson as manager in October and, while his first two games resulted in a 4-1 loss to Switzerland and a 1-1 home draw with Slovenia, their position as one of the best-performing teams in the most recent Nations League means Premier League performers like Viktor Gyökeres and Anthony Elanga now have the chance to shine for their country.

Sweden didn’t qualify in 2022 but went all the way to the quarter-finals in Russia in 2018 where their journey was ended by England.

Growing up, they were at many of the World Cups I watched and, while they are now ranked 42^nd in the world, 12 places below Ukraine, I think they could just edge this.

And if they can deliver World Cup qualifying 2026 highlights and win two games over the next week, what a turnaround it would be for discarded Premier League manager Potter.

One game at a time though.

 

History

I was surprised when I read that Sweden have only ever beaten Ukraine on one occasion.

That came in a 2011 friendly in Kharkiv when Tobias Hysen scored a 90^th minute winner in what was the only goal of the contest.

All the other four meetings have gone the way of the eastern Europeans.

Their inaugural clash in June 2008 in Solna was decided by a Serhiy Nazarenko goal eight minutes from time, while Ukraine also got the better of the Swedes in early 2011 in a tournament in Cyprus, winning 5-4 on penalties after a 1-1 draw.

Their only two major meetings, though, have come in European Championships.

At Euro 2012, the co-hosts made a dream start as a quickfire double from their captain, Andriy Shevchenko, earned a famous comeback victory in Kyiv.

They actually fell behind to a close-range finish from Zlatan Ibrahimovic but the lead was short lived as two goals in seven minutes from Shevchenko won the day to mark their tournament debut in memorable fashion.

Ultimately, both nations narrowly missed out on qualifying in a group which comprised England and France.

Fast forward to Euro 2020 (played in 2021) and it was a last-16 tie at Hampden Park in Glasgow.

By now, Shevchenko was the man in charge but the outcome was the same as he saw his side score a 120^th minute winner through Artem Dovbyk, just as the match seemed destined for penalties.

Earlier, Olexsandr Zinchenko and Emil Forsberg had traded first half goals.

Sweden had played the final 20 minutes of extra-time with 10 men.

 

Betting Tip

As the Blue and Yellow aim for a first World Cup appearance since 2006, our SBOTOP World Cup qualifying betting odds suggest this is too close to call.

Sweden are slight favourites, priced 1X2 @ 2.39 and Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 2.19, while Ukraine can be backed 1X2 @ 2.77 and Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.09.

The draw is on offer @ 3.09 and a repeat of their most recent meeting, albeit nearly five years ago, will pay out @ 10.50 with Correct Score 2-1.I am going to plump for there to be one goal between the sides and my ** tip is Total Goals 2-3 @ 1.97.

   

●●●

CHECK OUT OUR BLOG FOR MORE FOOTBALL STORIES & ODDS

Stay updated with everything sports and betting.

Follow us on social Facebook, X and Instagram.