Villarreal vs Real Madrid
A week is a long time in football and, my word there is a different mood on the white side of Madrid, as a win for Real away to Villarreal on Saturday would take Los Blancos to the top of the La Liga Primera Division.
Following the departure of Xabi Alonso, the big La Liga 2026 news story of the year, new interim manager Alvaro Arbeloa suffered a nightmare start to his tenure, watching his team dumped out of the Copa del Rey by second tier Albacete. But three days later Real Madrid recovered to beat Levante in the league and, on Tuesday, Arbeloa’s men handed out a 6-1 thrashing to AS Monaco in the Champions League.
So Real Madrid come into the game with back to back wins; meanwhile their hosts have back to back losses to shake off and Villarreal boss Marcelino needs to pick his team up from defeats to Real Betis and then Ajax. The Yellow Submarine sit in third place, seven points clear of fifth placed Espanyol and with a game in hand on their rivals.
League leaders Barcelona don’t play until Sunday, a game they will surely navigate at home to bottom club Real Oviedo, but after falling to Real Sociedad on their trip to the Basque last weekend the Blaugrana have opened the door to Los Blancos.
The question is: ‘Can Arbeloa’s men kick that door down?
Talking Points
La Liga focus may help Villarreal
This has been an odd sort of season for the Yellow Submarine, so strong in La Liga but so weak in Europe, where they languish in 35th place with just a single point. La Ceramica emptied early on Tuesday night as Villarreal fell to Ajax and they will round off their European campaign with a trip to Bayer Leverkusen. And, after Marcelino’s men were dumped out of the Copa del Rey by Racing Santander, they are left with a clear focus on the Primera Division where they look set to improve on their fifth placed finish of 2024/25.
Villarreal have the firepower to beat teams as they have proved time and time again at home, and the manager certainly didn’t hold back against Ajax, starting with Nicolas Pepe, Ayoze Perez and Albert Moleiro up front.
Marcelino will have his big guns ready to fire on Saturday, with the line led by skipper Gerard Moreno. Former Lyon striker Georges Mikautadze and 22 year old attacking midfielder Moleiro were both on target in the recent wins over Alaves and Elche, and they will surely start again; Moleiro has scored eight goals in 18 games since his switch from La Palmas and he has emerged as a potential match-winner.
Madrid’s mauling of Monaco sends a message
While Villarreal are all set to bow out of the Champions League, Real Madrid are riding high, up to second place and with their route to the knockout phase clearly mapped out. Los Blancos were hot favourites when they met Monaco on Tuesday night and they delivered in some style in Arbeloa’s first Champions League game in charge.
Kylian Mbappe got the ball rolling with just five minutes on the clock and the French star added a second on 26 minutes. Any thoughts of a Monaco revival swiftly ended ten minutes into the second half when Franco Mastantuono scored a super goal and then Thilo Kehrer put through his own net. Vinicius Junior added a fifth and, after Jordan Teze had nicked a consolation for Monaco, Jude Bellingham rounded off a swift move in style.
After clinically seeing off struggling Levante last weekend, this performance made a clear statement to Madrid’s rivals and, while the La Liga 2026 betting odds are still backing the Catalans to win the league, a victory for Los Blancos over Villarreal on Saturday would make the markets think again.
History
Real Madrid have bossed the head to head meetings, winning 22 to Villarreal’s six victories and there have been 16 draws in all competitions. The Yellow Submarine has had more success on home ground, winning four to Madrid’s seven and there have been 11 draws; though Los Blancos have won the last three meetings, including a 2-1 victory in Castellon last season.
Los Blancos have four wins and two losses from their last six while the Yellow Submarine have won two and lost four.
Betting Tip
Los Blancos are SBOTOP favourites to win this match at 1.95 while Villarreal are priced at 3.25. I think the Yellow Submarine will be back on the front foot and Real Madrid will find this a tough examination of their title hopes. So I’m going for a draw.
And what price for a correct score? Well, a 1-1 draw is available at 7.75, with 2-2 at 9.25; and a goalless stalemate at 16.50 but I don’t think that’s likely.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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