Max Verstappen has gone full circle, as he will get his chance to win his fifth Formula 1 title in a familiar situation. Just like in 2021, the title race will be decided at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but this time, he’ll have two drivers to contend with for the world championship.
But unlike in 2021, Verstappen is not in the driver’s seat heading into the Yas Marina Circuit, despite recently winning in Las Vegas and Qatar. Lando Norris leads the Dutchman by 12 points, while McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is only behind Verstappen by four points. The Red Bull driver previously admitted he’ll need a stroke of luck to bring home the bacon once again.
Elsewhere, there has been a major shakeup in Red Bull and the Racing Bulls’ driver lineups, with Yuki Tsunoda being the unfortunate casualty.
Check out the latest Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2025 updates, courtesy of SBOTOP.
McLaren’s Norris controls his destiny
Lando Norris faced a fork on the road in his path to a potential first world championship after he was disqualified in Las Vegas and fell out of the podium in Qatar last time out. Still, the British driver has the upper hand heading into Abu Dhabi.
The math is simple for Norris. All he has to do is finish no lower than third to guarantee the title. However, if he finishes fourth or lower, then there’s a sliver of hope for Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri.
If Verstappen wins and Norris is out of the podium, the Dutchman will win his fifth world title. However, if the Red Bull star is second or third, he needs Norris no higher than P8 or P9. For Piastri, he must secure a Top 2 finish to be in the mix. A win would be enough for the Australian international as long as Norris doesn’t finish in the Top 5. If Piastri is at P2, he’ll need Norris to be 10th or lower and Verstappen to finish fourth or lower.
The McLaren drivers are under enormous pressure, considering they are reigning constructors’ world champions. As for Verstappen, he seems relaxed ahead of the main race because he knows he has nothing to lose.
Major shakeup for the Red Bulls
Red Bull and RB will look different next season after tweaking their lineups for 2026. Verstappen will remain as the No. 1 driver for Red Bull, and Isack Hadjar will join him after a solid 2025 run with RB. Liam Lawson will remain with the Racing Bulls, and Arvid Lindblad will take the vacated spot left by Hadjar. The 18-year-old driver has made a meteoric rise through the ranks from F4 to F2 over the last three years.
With that said, this leaves Yuki Tsunoda without a seat. Tsunoda was promoted to become Red Bull’s No. 2 after Lawson’s abrupt demotion to RB, but he failed to live up to expectations with only 33 points to his name.
History
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix first took place in November 2009, which served as the season finale of the 2009 Formula 1 campaign. Sebastian Vettel won the first and second editions of the race while representing Red Bull, who boast the most wins on this circuit (7).
Lewis Hamilton is the winningest driver at Yas Marina, with five, including a back-to-back in 2018 and 2019. He could’ve won his fifth in 2021, which would’ve clinched his record eighth Formula 1 world championship, but it wasn’t meant to be.
Max Verstappen is the second-winningest driver on this circuit, winning four straight races from 2020 to 2023. On the other hand, Lando Norris won last year’s edition, which allowed the Papayas to win the constructors’ championship for the first time in 26 years.
What are the odds?
With momentum on his side, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2025 odds have Max Verstappen taking pole position and winning the main race, but it doesn’t guarantee him the world championship. The Red Bull driver is pegged at 2.50 in the qualifying and 2.00 on Sunday. On the other hand, frontrunner Lando Norris is at 3.00 in the qualifying and in the main race, and McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is behind them at 3.40 and 4.00 on Saturday and Sunday. George Russell and Kimi Antonelli are the closest challengers for the podium spots at 11.00 and 15.00, respectively. Isack Hadjar is poised to consolidate his Red Bull promotion, as he’s in ninth at 181.00. Meanwhile, Yuki Tsunoda is unlikely to finish his Red Bull campaign on a high, as he’s 13th at 351.00.
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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