Premier League: Gunners Need to Believe

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

I’ve occasionally wondered – and I’m sure a few Arsenal fans have too – just where the North Londoners would be now had they kept faith with Unai Emery in 2019. He seemed a superb appointment when Arsene Wenger’s 18-year tenure in North London came to a conclusion in 2018. Emery, though, was not even given 18 months in the role.

Fast forward five years, and it is tempting to believe that, had they remained patient, the Gunners may finally have ended their long Premier League title drought by now.

Certainly it was down to Emery, more than anyone, why they missed out on title glory a year ago as his Aston Villa side, a team he has transformed since returning to England in the autumn of 2022, completed a league double over his former charges – two results which critically damaged their title chances.

Now as the two sides prepare to lock horns on Saturday teatime, Arsenal are very much outsiders for the title.

Yet this SBOTOP writer believes they can perhaps put themselves back into the mix, and apply distinct pressure on leaders and favourites Liverpool, if they embark on a long winning run.

 

Talking Points

To do that, and to gain Premier League 2025 highlights in the process, they need to believe and undoubtedly need to strengthen before the January transfer window closes.

Arsenal are finding out this season just how disruptive injuries to key players can be with the loss of Bukayo Saka, who recently underwent hamstring surgery and faces up to a minimum of two months out, a massive blow.

Then, in the latest setback for a squad which has seen its title bid hampered by key players spending time on the sidelines, striker Gabriel Jesus was ruled out for the campaign with an anterior cruciate ligament injury.

The absence of captain Martin Odegaard for two months was another such example, and his recent return has brought fluidity and vision back, something which will be needed more than ever in the absence of Saka.

They clearly need a prolific striker though, as demonstrated during their midweek victory in the North London derby when a lack of cutting edge and a habit of over-elaborating when they got into danger areas drew groans of frustration from their supporters as Spurs were narrowly defeated.

At the same time, Villa were winning at Everton to move up to seventh, just three points outside of the top four. Emery, the manager of the season for me last term, will also have been pleased to ensure his team managed a first clean sheet away from home.

Like their hosts, they have key personnel missing and Arsenal should be too strong but, then again, the quite superb Emery has hurt them critically before.

 

History

It was in October 1904 when the then Woolwich Arsenal and Aston Villa – both founder members of the Football League – met for the first time. That was at the Manor Ground in Plumstead when Arsenal recorded a 1-0 home win with William Henry Gooing scoring the decisive goal.

Since that inaugural clash, they have met on a further 203 occasions with Arsenal claiming 88 victories, Villa 71 and 45 matches ending all square. One of those was the 2015 FA Cup Final when the Gunners ran riot with a 4-0 success.

Villa, however, all but cost Arsenal the title last term as they inflicted major damage with a league double. John McGinn scored an early goal to give the Villans a 1-0 home win in December.

Then in April, when the title was in Arsenal’s hands, Villa mopped up the pressure and scored twice in the final six minutes – though Leon Bailey and Watkins – to deliver a blow from which Arsenal never recovered. With that, the momentum belonged to Manchester City, and they never looked back.

Earlier this season, in what seemed a potentially ”statement” win at the time, a close contest was settled by two goals in 10 second half minutes from Leandro Trossard and Thomas Partey.

 

Betting Tip

The Premier League 2025 betting odds are in favour of Arsenal and, despite their mixed form, so am I. I actually feel their need to win at all costs will make them come out and play and, despite their absences, will prove too strong for a Villa squad without key men of their own.

Backing the hosts 1X2 @ 1.44 and Asian Handicap -1.25 @ 2.08 is not as attractive as Villa who are priced 1X2 @ 5.90 and Asian Handicap +1.25 @ 1.82.

A repeat of their 2-0 Emirates win from a crucial stage at last season will pay out at a massive @ 46.00 with Correct Score, while Over 3.00 @ 2.16 has tempted me, as has Total Goal 2-3 @ 2.04 and 4-6 @ 2.86. In the end, though, I am plumping for the Gunners to lead from the outset.

   

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